ANALISIS EMITEN PGEO: PT PERTAMINA GEOTHERMAL ENERGY TBK MERUJUK PADA LAPORAN KEUANGAN TAHUN 2021-2025

Abstract

PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk (PGEO) is the largest geothermal energy company in Southeast Asia by self-operated installed capacity, listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) since February 2023. This study aims to conduct a comprehensive equity research analysis of PGEO covering the period 2021–2025 by evaluating financial performance, competitive positioning, ESG profile, and valuation. The approach integrates Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), EV/EBITDA peer comparison, Dividend Discount Model (DDM), and Price-to-Earnings (P/E) forward analysis. Findings indicate that PGEO demonstrates strong and consistent financial growth, with revenue CAGR of approximately 4.5% and net income CAGR of 8.5% over the observation period. The company maintains a gross profit margin above 59%, an EBITDA margin in the 57–62% range, and a conservative debt-to-equity ratio of 0.37x. PGEO holds a de facto monopoly in Indonesia's geothermal sector, backed by 30-year Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with PLN and the support of its parent company, Pertamina. At the current price of around Rp1,100 (March 2026), PGEO is undervalued relative to global peers, with a 12-month consensus target price of Rp1,450–1,600. The study concludes with an ACCUMULATE/BUY rating, underscoring PGEO's strategic position at the intersection of the global energy transition and Indonesia's digital infrastructure growth.