ANTARA SENTIMEN DAN REALITA: MENGAPA SAHAM OILS NAIK DAN MENCAPAI ARA DI TENGAH KONFLIK GLOBAL?

Abstract

This study examines the anomaly in stock price movements within the Indonesian capital market, focusing on the significant surge of OILS stock during geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While most sectors experienced a decline due to global uncertainty, OILS stock showed an abnormal increase and reached indications of Auto Reject Atas (ARA), despite lacking direct exposure to the crude oil industry. This phenomenon raises questions regarding market rationality and efficiency. This research aims to analyze whether the surge is driven by fundamental factors or behavioral dynamics. A qualitative descriptive approach is employed using literature review and secondary data analysis, supported by price and volume chart interpretation. The findings reveal that the increase is predominantly driven by investor sentiment, particularly Fear of Missing Out (FOMO), herding behavior, and representativeness bias in interpreting stock identity. The occurrence of extreme price movements further indicates market overreaction and short-term inefficiency. This study highlights the importance of behavioral finance in explaining stock market anomalies in emerging markets.