DINAMIKA VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI DAN SENTIMEN KONSUMEN DALAM MEMPENGARUHI VOLATILITAS INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impact of macroeconomic variables, including the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), BI-Rate, and Exchange Rate, on the Indonesia Stock Composite Index (IHSG) from 2020 to 2024. Utilizing a quantitative approach with multiple linear regression analysis, the research examines how these factors drive domestic stock market volatility. The results indicate that the CCI has a positive and significant effect on the IHSG, suggesting that consumer optimism serves as a primary driver of market growth through expectations of public purchasing power. Conversely, the BI-Rate shows a negative impact, consistent with the cost-of-capital theory where interest rate hikes tend to suppress stock prices. A unique finding regarding the Exchange Rate reveals a positive influence on the IHSG, reflecting the characteristics of the Indonesia Stock Exchange which is dominated by commodity and export-oriented sectors that benefit from domestic currency depreciation. This research provides critical implications for investors and regulators in monitoring psychological economic indicators and monetary stability to maintain the resilience of the IHSG