EFEK DOMINO KONFLIK GLOBAL: ANALISIS PENGARUH KONFLIK GEOPOLITIK TERHADAP KINERJA KEUANGAN EMITEN ENERGI STUDI KASUS PT PERTAMINA GEOTHERMAL ENERGY TBK (PGEO)

Abstract

The contemporary international system in the first quarter of 2026 is undergoing a massive structural transformation toward a fragmented multipolar landscape. Geopolitical shocks in the Middle East and global supply chain disruptions have triggered significant volatility within the Indonesian capital market. This research evaluates the impact of these global dynamics on investor behavior and portfolio performance, aligned with the "STANDING" philosophy. Employing a mixed-methods approach—integrating Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) quantitative modeling with qualitative phenomenological analysis—this study identifies a prevalence of herding behavior and loss aversion among retail investors, exacerbated by the ease of digital platform access. As a strategic solution, the research proposes a transition toward the Total Portfolio Approach (TPA) and highlights the long-term value of PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk (PGEO) as an asset providing structural immunity against energy and logistics crises. The findings emphasize the necessity of Investment Thinking to shift mindsets from speculative tendencies toward sustainable growth. Furthermore, the report recommends that capital market authorities (OJK and IDX) design cognitive protection infrastructures through "friction-by-design" mechanisms. These insights aim to strengthen the resilience of domestic investors amidst escalating global geopolitical uncertainty.