THE EFFECT OF CAR AND NPL ON ROA : INFLATION AS A MODERATING VARIABLE
Abstrak
This study explores how inflation moderates the relationship between Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) and Non-Performing Loan (NPL) on Return on Assets (ROA) within ASEAN banking institutions.The banking is pivotal to ASEAN’s economic stability, yet inconsistencies in prior findings regarding the impact of CAR and NPL on ROA, coupled with limited exploration of inflation’s influence, highlight the need for further research. This research examines inflation’s moderating effect on the relationship between CAR, NPL, and ROA, offering insights into their interactions within ASEAN economies. This study uses secondary data from ASEAN banks for the period 2021-2023, employs a quantitative methodology. Analytical techniques include descriptive statistics, classical assumption test, multiple linear regression, and Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) to better understand these financial interactions. The findings indicate that CAR and NPL have a significant negative impact on ROA, while inflation acting as a moderating factor that weakens the relationship between CAR and ROA, as well as between NPL and ROA. Effective risk management and macroeconomic stability are essential for bank profitability. This guides ASEAN policymakers and banks in enhancing financial resilience.Referensi
Abdurrohman, A., Fitrianingsih, D., Salam, A. F., & Putri, Y. (2020). Pengaruh Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Loan To Deposit Ratio (LDR) dan Non Performing Loan (NPL) Terhadap Return on Asset (ROA) pada Sektor Perbankan di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Jurnal Revenue : Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi, 1(1), 125–132. https://doi.org/10.46306/rev.v1i1.12
Afolabi, T., Williams, H., & Dare, A. (2018). An Empirical Investigation of the Determinants of Capital Adequacy of Financial Institutions in Nigeria. International Review of Social Science, 6(7), 376–386.
Al-Harbi, A. (2019). The determinants of conventional banks profitability in developing and underdeveloped OIC countries. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 24(47), 4–28.
Astohar, A. (2017). Pengaruh Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) dan Financing To Deposit Ratio Terhadap Profitabilitas Perbankan Syariah di Indonesia Dengan Inflasi Sebagai Variabel Pemoderasi. Among Makarti, 9(2). https://doi.org/10.52353/ama.v9i2.138
Aswini, S., Gunawan, E., Chaniago, K., & Astuty, F. (2021). Pengaruh LDR, NPL, CAR dan DPK terhadap ROA pada Perusahaan Perbankan Periode 2015-2019. Owner, 5(1), 252–259. https://doi.org/10.33395/owner.v5i1.384
Ayuningrum, A. P. (2021). The Effect Risk of Credit, Efficiency, and GCG of Bank Profitability (Study in Conventional Commercial Banks Registered on the Indonesia Stock Exchange Period 2012 - 2019). Management Analysis Journal, Vol 10 No 2 (2021): Management Analysis Journal, 139–145. https://journal.unnes.ac.id/sju/index.php/maj/article/view/45940/19458
Dao, B. T. T., & Nguyen, D. P. (2020). Determinants of Profitability in Commercial Banks in Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(4), 133–143. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no4.133
Demirguc-Kunt, A., & Huizinga, H. (1998). Determinants of Commercial Bank Interest Margins and Profitability: Some International Evidence. The World Bank Economic Review, 13. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/13.2.379
Do, H., Xuan, N., & Phung, Q. (2020). The effect of non-performing loans on profitability of commercial banks: Case of Vietnam. Accounting, 6, 373–386. https://doi.org/10.5267/j.ac.2020.1.001
Endri, E. (2020). Long-Term Analysis Banking Share Price: Application of Data Panel Regression Model. SSRN Electronic Journal, 2. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3670225
Erwanda, A. P. N., Zuhroh, I., & Kurniawati, E. T. (2024). Comparative Analysis Of Financial Performance Of Conventional Banking In Asean. EKOMBIS REVIEW: Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 12(3). https://doi.org/10.37676/ekombis.v12i3.5691
Hanifa, F., Silvia, A., & Juhendi, N. (2020). Pengaruh Faktor Internal dan Eksternal terhadap Profitabilitas Bank Syariah di Indonesia. Al-Urban, 4(2), 115–125. https://doi.org/10.22236/alurban_vol4/is1pp101-114
Kalifa, W., & Bektas, E. (2017). The impacts of bank-specific and macroeconomic variables on the capital adequacy ratio: evidence from Islamic banks. Applied Economics Letters, 1–5. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2017.1340559
Karkowska, R., Korzeb, Z., & Niedziółka, P. (2025). Inflation’s dual impact on European banks’ profitability. Journal of Policy Modeling, 47(1), 64–77. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.11.004
Lan, T., & Nguyen, C. (2020). The Determinants of Profitability in Listed Enterprises: A Study from Vietnamese Stock Exchange. Journal of Asian Finance Economics and Business, 7, 47–58. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no1.47
Linda, M. R. (2015). Pengaruh Inflasi, Kurs dan Tingkat Suku Bunga Terhadap Non Performing Loan pada PT. Bank Tabungan Negara (PERSERO) Tbk Cabang Padang. Economica, 3(2), 137–145. https://doi.org/10.22202/economica.2015.v3.i2.251
Maulida, N. A., & Arfiansyah, M. A. (2024). Analisis Pengaruh Rasio Keuangan Terhadap Profitabilitas Perbankan Syariah Di Indonesia Dengan Inflasi Sebagai Varibel Pemoderasi. Al Iqtishod: Jurnal Pemikiran Dan Penelitian Ekonomi Islam, 12(2), 253–273. https://doi.org/10.37812/aliqtishod.v12i2.1622
Mcgowan, C., & Andrew, R. S. (1969). Using Disaggregated Return on Assets to Conduct a Financial Analysis of a Commercial Bank Using an Extension of the DuPont System of Financial Analysis. Accounting and Finance Research, 1, 1082. https://doi.org/10.5430/afr.v1n1p152
Naoaj, M. S. (2023). Exploring the Determinants of Capital Adequacy in Commercial Banks: A Study of Bangladesh’s Banking Sector. European Journal of Business Management and Research, 8(2), 108–112. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2304.05935
Nurhayati, S. (2019). Metodologi Penelitian Praktis (2nd ed.). UNIKAL PRESS.
Quoc Trung, N. K. (2021). Determinants of bank performance in Vietnamese commercial banks: an application of the camels model. Cogent Business & Management, 8(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2021.1979443
Qureshi, M., & Tooba, H. (2023). An Investigation Of Macroeconomic Factors On Non-Performing Loans: A Study Based On Commercial Banks Of Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of International Affairs, 6(4). https://doi.org/10.52337/pjia.v6i4.935
Rostami, S., Rostami, Z., & Kohansal, S. (2016). The Effect of Corporate Governance Components on Return on Assets and Stock Return of Companies Listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. Procedia Economics and Finance, 36, 137–146. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(16)30025-9
Selling, T. I., & and Stickney, C. P. (1989). The Effects of Business Environment and Strategy on a Firm’s Rate of Return on Assets. Financial Analysts Journal, 45(1), 43–52. https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v45.n1.43
Setyaningsih, A., Maftukhin, M., & Ernitawati, Y. (2023). Pengaruh Biaya Operasional Pendapatan Operasional (BOPO), Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR), dan Net Interest Margin (NIM) Terhadap Return On Asset (ROA) pada Perusahaan Perbankan yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Jurnal Bina Akuntansi, 10(2), 696–715. https://doi.org/10.52859/jba.v10i2.467
Sistiyarini, E., & Poerwanti, R. (2021). Determinan Kredit Bermasalah pada Bank Devisa di Indonesia. Eqien: Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 8(2). https://doi.org/10.34308/eqien.v8i2.251
Spence, M. (1973). Job Market Signaling. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 87(3), 355–374. https://doi.org/10.2307/1882010
Sumarlin, S. (2016). Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi, CAR, FDR, BOPO, dan NPF Terhadap Profitabilitas Perbankan Syariah. Assets: Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen Dan Akuntansi, 6(2), 296–313.
Sunaryo, D. (2020). The Effect Of Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Net Interest Margin (NIM), Non-Performing Loan (NPL), and Loan To Deposit Ratio (LDR) Against Return On Asset (ROA) In General Banks In Southeast Asia 2012-2018. Ilomata International Journal of Management, 1(4), 149–158. https://doi.org/10.52728/ijjm.v1i4.110
Sutrisno, M. S., Laksana, B., & Djuwarsa, T. (2022). Pengaruh NPL dan CAR Terhadap ROA pada Bank Umum Milik Negara. Indonesian Journal of Economics and Management, 2(2), 429–440. https://doi.org/10.35313/ijem.v2i2.3260
Tangngisalu, J., Hasanuddin, R., Hala, Y., Nurlina, N., & Syahrul, S. (2020). Effect of CAR and NPL on ROA: Empirical Study in Indonesia Banks. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(6), 9–18. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no6.009
Vuong, G. T. H., Nguyen, Y. D. H., Nguyen, M. H., & Wong, W.-K. (2024). Assessing the impact of macroeconomic uncertainties on bank stability: Insights from ASEAN-8 countries. Heliyon, 10(11), e31711. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e31711
Yrigoy, I. (2018). Transforming non-performing loans into re-performing loans: Hotel assets as a post-crisis rentier frontier in Spain. Geoforum, 97, 169–176. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2018.11.001
Yuliani, F., Iswanaji, C., & Setyawan, S. (2021). Pengaruh Capital Adequacy Ratio, Non Performing Financing, Financing to Deposit Ratio Terhadap Profitabilitas dengan Inflasi Sebagai Variabel Moderasi Pada Bank Umum Syariah yang Terdaftar di OJK Periode 2014-2019. JAAP (Jurnal Akuntansi, Auditing, Dan Perpajakan), 3(1), 130–147.
Afolabi, T., Williams, H., & Dare, A. (2018). An Empirical Investigation of the Determinants of Capital Adequacy of Financial Institutions in Nigeria. International Review of Social Science, 6(7), 376–386.
Al-Harbi, A. (2019). The determinants of conventional banks profitability in developing and underdeveloped OIC countries. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 24(47), 4–28.
Astohar, A. (2017). Pengaruh Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) dan Financing To Deposit Ratio Terhadap Profitabilitas Perbankan Syariah di Indonesia Dengan Inflasi Sebagai Variabel Pemoderasi. Among Makarti, 9(2). https://doi.org/10.52353/ama.v9i2.138
Aswini, S., Gunawan, E., Chaniago, K., & Astuty, F. (2021). Pengaruh LDR, NPL, CAR dan DPK terhadap ROA pada Perusahaan Perbankan Periode 2015-2019. Owner, 5(1), 252–259. https://doi.org/10.33395/owner.v5i1.384
Ayuningrum, A. P. (2021). The Effect Risk of Credit, Efficiency, and GCG of Bank Profitability (Study in Conventional Commercial Banks Registered on the Indonesia Stock Exchange Period 2012 - 2019). Management Analysis Journal, Vol 10 No 2 (2021): Management Analysis Journal, 139–145. https://journal.unnes.ac.id/sju/index.php/maj/article/view/45940/19458
Dao, B. T. T., & Nguyen, D. P. (2020). Determinants of Profitability in Commercial Banks in Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(4), 133–143. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no4.133
Demirguc-Kunt, A., & Huizinga, H. (1998). Determinants of Commercial Bank Interest Margins and Profitability: Some International Evidence. The World Bank Economic Review, 13. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/13.2.379
Do, H., Xuan, N., & Phung, Q. (2020). The effect of non-performing loans on profitability of commercial banks: Case of Vietnam. Accounting, 6, 373–386. https://doi.org/10.5267/j.ac.2020.1.001
Endri, E. (2020). Long-Term Analysis Banking Share Price: Application of Data Panel Regression Model. SSRN Electronic Journal, 2. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3670225
Erwanda, A. P. N., Zuhroh, I., & Kurniawati, E. T. (2024). Comparative Analysis Of Financial Performance Of Conventional Banking In Asean. EKOMBIS REVIEW: Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 12(3). https://doi.org/10.37676/ekombis.v12i3.5691
Hanifa, F., Silvia, A., & Juhendi, N. (2020). Pengaruh Faktor Internal dan Eksternal terhadap Profitabilitas Bank Syariah di Indonesia. Al-Urban, 4(2), 115–125. https://doi.org/10.22236/alurban_vol4/is1pp101-114
Kalifa, W., & Bektas, E. (2017). The impacts of bank-specific and macroeconomic variables on the capital adequacy ratio: evidence from Islamic banks. Applied Economics Letters, 1–5. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2017.1340559
Karkowska, R., Korzeb, Z., & Niedziółka, P. (2025). Inflation’s dual impact on European banks’ profitability. Journal of Policy Modeling, 47(1), 64–77. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.11.004
Lan, T., & Nguyen, C. (2020). The Determinants of Profitability in Listed Enterprises: A Study from Vietnamese Stock Exchange. Journal of Asian Finance Economics and Business, 7, 47–58. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no1.47
Linda, M. R. (2015). Pengaruh Inflasi, Kurs dan Tingkat Suku Bunga Terhadap Non Performing Loan pada PT. Bank Tabungan Negara (PERSERO) Tbk Cabang Padang. Economica, 3(2), 137–145. https://doi.org/10.22202/economica.2015.v3.i2.251
Maulida, N. A., & Arfiansyah, M. A. (2024). Analisis Pengaruh Rasio Keuangan Terhadap Profitabilitas Perbankan Syariah Di Indonesia Dengan Inflasi Sebagai Varibel Pemoderasi. Al Iqtishod: Jurnal Pemikiran Dan Penelitian Ekonomi Islam, 12(2), 253–273. https://doi.org/10.37812/aliqtishod.v12i2.1622
Mcgowan, C., & Andrew, R. S. (1969). Using Disaggregated Return on Assets to Conduct a Financial Analysis of a Commercial Bank Using an Extension of the DuPont System of Financial Analysis. Accounting and Finance Research, 1, 1082. https://doi.org/10.5430/afr.v1n1p152
Naoaj, M. S. (2023). Exploring the Determinants of Capital Adequacy in Commercial Banks: A Study of Bangladesh’s Banking Sector. European Journal of Business Management and Research, 8(2), 108–112. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2304.05935
Nurhayati, S. (2019). Metodologi Penelitian Praktis (2nd ed.). UNIKAL PRESS.
Quoc Trung, N. K. (2021). Determinants of bank performance in Vietnamese commercial banks: an application of the camels model. Cogent Business & Management, 8(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2021.1979443
Qureshi, M., & Tooba, H. (2023). An Investigation Of Macroeconomic Factors On Non-Performing Loans: A Study Based On Commercial Banks Of Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of International Affairs, 6(4). https://doi.org/10.52337/pjia.v6i4.935
Rostami, S., Rostami, Z., & Kohansal, S. (2016). The Effect of Corporate Governance Components on Return on Assets and Stock Return of Companies Listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. Procedia Economics and Finance, 36, 137–146. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(16)30025-9
Selling, T. I., & and Stickney, C. P. (1989). The Effects of Business Environment and Strategy on a Firm’s Rate of Return on Assets. Financial Analysts Journal, 45(1), 43–52. https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v45.n1.43
Setyaningsih, A., Maftukhin, M., & Ernitawati, Y. (2023). Pengaruh Biaya Operasional Pendapatan Operasional (BOPO), Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR), dan Net Interest Margin (NIM) Terhadap Return On Asset (ROA) pada Perusahaan Perbankan yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Jurnal Bina Akuntansi, 10(2), 696–715. https://doi.org/10.52859/jba.v10i2.467
Sistiyarini, E., & Poerwanti, R. (2021). Determinan Kredit Bermasalah pada Bank Devisa di Indonesia. Eqien: Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 8(2). https://doi.org/10.34308/eqien.v8i2.251
Spence, M. (1973). Job Market Signaling. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 87(3), 355–374. https://doi.org/10.2307/1882010
Sumarlin, S. (2016). Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi, CAR, FDR, BOPO, dan NPF Terhadap Profitabilitas Perbankan Syariah. Assets: Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen Dan Akuntansi, 6(2), 296–313.
Sunaryo, D. (2020). The Effect Of Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Net Interest Margin (NIM), Non-Performing Loan (NPL), and Loan To Deposit Ratio (LDR) Against Return On Asset (ROA) In General Banks In Southeast Asia 2012-2018. Ilomata International Journal of Management, 1(4), 149–158. https://doi.org/10.52728/ijjm.v1i4.110
Sutrisno, M. S., Laksana, B., & Djuwarsa, T. (2022). Pengaruh NPL dan CAR Terhadap ROA pada Bank Umum Milik Negara. Indonesian Journal of Economics and Management, 2(2), 429–440. https://doi.org/10.35313/ijem.v2i2.3260
Tangngisalu, J., Hasanuddin, R., Hala, Y., Nurlina, N., & Syahrul, S. (2020). Effect of CAR and NPL on ROA: Empirical Study in Indonesia Banks. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(6), 9–18. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no6.009
Vuong, G. T. H., Nguyen, Y. D. H., Nguyen, M. H., & Wong, W.-K. (2024). Assessing the impact of macroeconomic uncertainties on bank stability: Insights from ASEAN-8 countries. Heliyon, 10(11), e31711. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e31711
Yrigoy, I. (2018). Transforming non-performing loans into re-performing loans: Hotel assets as a post-crisis rentier frontier in Spain. Geoforum, 97, 169–176. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2018.11.001
Yuliani, F., Iswanaji, C., & Setyawan, S. (2021). Pengaruh Capital Adequacy Ratio, Non Performing Financing, Financing to Deposit Ratio Terhadap Profitabilitas dengan Inflasi Sebagai Variabel Moderasi Pada Bank Umum Syariah yang Terdaftar di OJK Periode 2014-2019. JAAP (Jurnal Akuntansi, Auditing, Dan Perpajakan), 3(1), 130–147.
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