PENGARUH DIGITALISASI EKONOMI TERHADAP PEMBANGUNAN BERKELANJUTAN DI INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN ARDL

Abstrak

Purpose – This study analyzes the impact of economic digitalization on sustainable development in Indonesia by employing Adjusted Net Savings (ANS) as a proxy for intergenerational sustainability. It also investigates whether human capital enhances the effectiveness of digitalization in generating long-term sustainable economic outcomes. Research Paper Design/methodology/approach – The research utilizes annual time-series data covering the period 2005–2024, sourced from Statistics Indonesia, Bank Indonesia, the Ministry of Finance, and the World Bank. Economic digitalization is proxied by household internet access, electronic money transaction value, the number of internet subscribers, and government ICT expenditure, while human capital is measured by average years of schooling. The empirical strategy integrates multiple linear regression and Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) to estimate direct and conditional effects. To capture dynamic relationships, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Bounds Testing approach are employed to examine short-run and long-run cointegration. Findings – The results reveal that economic digitalization exerts a positive and statistically significant effect on ANS in both the short and long run. Electronic money transactions and internet subscription growth emerge as the most influential drivers of sustainability. The Bounds Test confirms the presence of long-run cointegration, and MRA results indicate that human capital significantly strengthens the digitalization.sustainability impact of Originality/value – This study provides dynamic national-level evidence on the sustainability implications of digital transformation and highlights the moderating role of human capital in digital-led development.